Fool’s Gold or Championship DNA? The NFL Teams You Can’t Trust Yet

We are just a little more than a quarter of the way through the NFL season and teams are already separating themselves according to their record. Though there are no undefeated teams, we have several teams that are 4-1 (Colts, Jaguars), teams that are 2-3 or 3-2 (Bears, Patriots, Broncos), and teams that are 1-4 (Titans, Raiders).

How much can we trust these records at this point, though? Do they truly reflect the quality of the team? Do they unjustly punish teams that may have had difficult schedules to start the season?

For a few of these high-profile teams, we label them as the Real Deal (the record reflects the quality of the team) or No Deal (the record does not reflect the quality of the team). However, we want to give you both sides of the story. For each declaration, we’ll give you the counter view so you can make your own decision.

Larry Goldman and Scott Graison sit down to dissect it out for us.

New England Patriots: No Deal

LG: After a 2023 showing of 4-13 (last place in the AFC East), the Patriots rebounded with a 4-13 showing in 2024, good for last place in the AFC East. This year, the Patriots are 3-2, second in the AFC East, and soaring high after a win against the Bills at Buffalo.

This must be the return of a Tom Bradyesque dynasty, right?

Not a chance. New England will fold again this year. They might do better than the last two years, but we won’t be seeing any Super Bowl appearances for Drake Maye.

New England has already lost to the Raiders and the Steelers. If you aspire to be a playoff team, these are not the teams to lose to, especially the Raiders who may not win another game this season. Yes, the Patriots beat the Bills, and that is impressive. I don’t want to say the Bill lost and New England did not win, but the Bills had uncharacteristic turnovers.

Beating the Dolphins and Carolina (last place and third place respectively) does not increase confidence that New England has what it takes.

NFL.com seems to agree. Though they raised New England five places in the power ranking, they still have them in the bottom half of the league at 18.

New England’s record will continue to be inflated throughout the season as they still must play the Saints (last place), Titans (last place), Browns (last place), Falcons (2-2), Jets (last place, winless), Giants (last place), and a Burrowless (now Flaccofull) Bengals.  According to the Athletic, the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Yes, Drake Maye is looking good. He is seventh in passing yards and sixth in QB rating. But he isn’t scoring as he is 20^th in passing touchdowns. And the rushing game is non-existent. They are 22^nd in yards on the ground and 24^th in yards per carry. Defenses tend to feast on one-dimensional teams.

The defense still has many holes. They give up the seventh most receiving yards, 11^th most receiving touchdowns, and are middle of the pack in turnovers caused (fumbles and interceptions). The run defense is very good.

They will probably end up with a very good record for the year, hype will be high due to the Patriot name and will consequently lose in the first round of the playoffs. 

What could change my mind:

If Rhamondre Stevenson or Treveyon Henderson start exploding or if they beat the Buccaneers, I may start changing my mind.

The other side of the argument: New England is the Real Deal

SG: Just ask anyone, especially a couple teams in the New England area, what a single win can do. In 2004, the Boston Red Sox trailed the bitter rival New York Yankees 3-0 in the ALCS. They could’ve folded, acquiesced to the high-powered Bronx Bombers, and gone quietly into the night with no shame. However, that wasn’t in their plans. The Sox rebounded with a win in Game 4. Not momentum, but a glimmer of hope. They won game 5. Now, there was hope, the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. That hope was all they needed to capture the next game and the one after that. And when the final out was recorded, a roster full of misfits and a bloody sock went on to win the World Series, the team’s first since 1918.

What about the Patriots in 2001? Quarterback Drew Bledsoe was having a fine season in New England until Jets linebacker Mo Lewis drilled him as he was scrambling out of bounds. In the moment, no one immediately knew the significance of the injury. But 6th round draft pick, Tom Brady, was forced into action. He rallied the troops to victory and ended up leading the charge to an unexpectedly ceremonious hoisting of the Lombardi Trophy.

That took a bit to get to this– the New England Patriots can be the Real Deal. Knocking off Buffalo is a possible jumping off point for the Pats. Are they statistically a top-tier team? No. But sometimes it doesn’t matter. Remember a Giants team that went 8-8 and rallied to win the Super Bowl…over the Pats, no less.

This brand of Patriots does not have Tom Brady, Tedy Bruschi, or Bill Belichick roaming the sidelines, (by the way, this article will pontificate as to why it was Brady, not Belichick, who was the reason for their several Super Bowl wins) *****Zach, I tried to copy and paste the link to this article that was published on Jul 6, but all I got was the title…please help insert the link? but it may not matter. Unity, cohesiveness, and coaching can carry a team a long way. Additionally, the schedule is nicely set up for success in New England. All you can do is play the teams on your schedule, and the Pats itinerary is highly favorable. Will they win the Super Bowl this season? I wouldn’t plunk down a nickel on that, but they are the Real Deal based on the big win against Buffalo on the road, and the slate that’s laid out in front of them.

Kansas City Chiefs: No Deal

LG: I think the Kansas City’s 2-3 record is actually reflective of the quality of this team. The reign of the mighty Reid/Mahomes pairing is, at least temporarily, coming to an end and the Chiefs could realistically be under .500 this season.

The Chiefs have lost to the Eagles (forgivable), the Chargers (the jury is out on them as well), and the Jaguars (they could be in this article as No Deal as well). At best, the Chargers and Jaguars are mediocre teams that a dominant Chiefs team would typically beat. They have beat the Giants (last place) and the Lamar Jacksonless Ravens. Unimpressive.

 The Athletic puts the Chiefs at the 18^th easiest schedule because they play some very bad teams and some really good teams. They play the Raiders (twice), Cowboys, Texans, and Titans which could be winnable games. However, they also have to play the Broncos twice, Lions, Commanders, Bills, Colts, and Chargers. Conceivably, they could lose all of those. Realistically, they will probably lose many of them.

NFL.com has lost confidence in the Chiefs after their most recent loss, dropping them out of the top 10 Power Rankings to 12.

Mahomes’ numbers were not MVP level last year, and they are again in the decent realm this year. He is ninth in passing yards, 10^th in touchdowns, and 10^th worst in completion percentage which is why he is 19^th in QB rating.  

This might be Travis Kelce’s last year, which would make sense since he has the 7^th most receiving yards for tight ends. If he was a receiver, that would be really great, but we are used to seeing him as the TE1 or TE2.

On defense, the Chiefs give up the 10^th fewest yards on defense to passers but 12^th most rushing yards. The Chiefs are middle of the road in turnovers.

The term middle of the road is just used too much when looking at the Chiefs numbers. It is not the standard that Mahomes, Reid, Kelce, and Chris Jones have established over the years. But it is where they are this year. Their record reflects that they are probably not a playoff team this year and can join the Astros and the Lakers in their misery.

What could change my mind:

You can’t count out Mahomes, one of the best competitors in the games. What would spark my attention is the sack numbers, Xavier Worthy’s receiving numbers, and a breakout year for Kareem Hunt.

The other side of the argument: Kansas City Chiefs are the Real Deal

SG: Yep, the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-3 through five games this season. It’s a pretty foreign spot for them to be in, especially given the success the team has enjoyed for several years. Should fans of KC be alarmed right now? Hardly. “Pump the brakes” is a term used to indicate a need to calm down, and it certainly rings true with the Chiefs. Yes…the team has lost some key pieces in recent years. Another yes…a continued drive for penultimate success is hard to maintain year after year. Still another yes…opponents have caught on, at least to a degree, as to how to play Kansas City. Even another yes…their offensive output has declined from the seasons that saw the Chiefs rack up massive yards and massive points.

But, and a more important yes…the franchise has still gone to the Super Bowl five of the past six seasons, winning the big one three times in their five trips to the promised land. The sky is not falling. Chicken Little is not real. 

Patrick Mahomes is still under center and doing it just fine. He’s 6th in the league in passing yards and 9th in passing TDs. And he’s still quite mobile, as his 190 rushing yards are good for 3rd in the league. 

Defensively, and I’ll be open and honest about this– the Chiefs run over the past several seasons hasn’t been highlighted by defense. Having said that, here’s where they rank in some key statistical categories, and where they sit is not anything to sniff at.

• 9th in passing yards allowed

• 10th in team sacks

• 15th in points allowed

  
  

With the defense being in the middle of the pack defensively, it directly correlates to the offensive not having to be a complete juggernaut anymore. 

Oh yeah, there’s some guy named Andy Reid roaming the sidelines. The last time I checked, he’s accumulated the fourth most wins of any coach in the long history of the NFL, trailing only Shula, Halas, and Belichick. He’s found himself in the Super Bowl six times, winning three of those contests. When his career is over and he’s faded off into the sunset, he’ll be remembered as being one of the most innovative offensive minds the game has ever seen. There will be countless number of people ready to place him on the Mount Rushmore of all-timers in professional football coaching.

So, back to pumping the brakes. We’re just a mere five games into the NFL season. The worry about the Kansas City Chiefs not being legit…is not legit. Five games are but a microcosm of the long season. And KC is just one game back for the division lead. While they have some tough games on the road ahead, they do have plenty of favorable matchups as well. When the dust settles, you can expect another playoff appearance for the athletes in Arrowhead.

Chicago Bears: The Real Deal

LG: The Chicago Bears went into the bye week 2-2 and on a two game win streak. Yes, one of those wins was against the Raiders, but the other was against the Cowboys. The Cowboys brought the Green Bay Packers to the brink in a 40-40 tie and Dak Prescott is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now.

Since the Packers are ranked sixth by NFL.com, shouldn’t the Bears be somewhere closer to six than the Cowboys 20? NFL.com doesn’t think so because they ranked the Bears at 19. But this isn’t last year’s Bears. There should be a much more optimism around the Bears.

Caleb Williams progression as a quarterback is evident. Last year he averaged 208 yards/game, but this year he is at 230/game. He took four sacks a game last year, this year he is at 1.75. Last year his QB rating was 87.8, this year it is 97.8. Most importantly, he is winning.

These numbers translate to the success of his playmakers. Rome Odunze is tied for second in receiving touchdowns in the NFL. He had 43 yards/game last year, this year he is averaging 74.

De’Andre Swift is still trying to get his rushing game in full swing, but his touches and targets are rising. Last year, he had 3 targets/game and this year he is already up 4.5.

The Bears defense is also invigorated by the change in leadership. They are second in the league in interceptions and are on pace to have their largest sack total in years.

The Bears strength of schedule has also changed since the beginning of the year. They started out with the fifth hardest schedule and now sit at 15. They still have to face the Packers twice and the Lions and Vikings one more time. But the Saints, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, and Giants are much less scary teams. The Eagles, Steelers, and  49er’s are potentially more scary.

Last year’s 5-12 record is in the past. The Bears 2-2 record is going to translate into at least 8-8 this year and possibly a third place finish in the extremely difficult NFC Central, ahead of the Vikings.

The Bears may not be a playoff team this year, but their star is rising, and are poised to be a force in the NFL in 2026 and beyond.

What could change my mind: 

Not being to fix the run game, on the offense and defense, could slide the Bears out of the optimism category.

The other side of the argument: The Chicago Bears are No Deal

SG: Great news for Chicago Bears fans…your Monsters of the Midway didn’t lose this past Sunday. Then again, they didn’t play because it was a bye week for the team. Also, fans of the team should be thrilled at this point in the season because the Bears are only two wins behind the division leader. However, it’s already good for last place in the NFC North. The leader in that division is the Detroit Lions, who have been on the upswing in recent years, and will likely be contenders to play in the Super Bowl this year.

This is a team that on its best day is watching old VHS tapes of the 1985 Bears unit dominate the competition enroute to a Super Bowl victory. Nowadays, there is no insane defense like that glorious team possessed. There is no sunglasses-wearing Jim McMahon at quarterback. There is no Refrigerator Perry to bowl defenders over enroute to a touchdown from the two yard line. There is no Walter Payton to churn up yards on the ground. 

Instead, it’s Caleb Williams at QB, who, barely into his NFL career, is already turning heads– in the wrong way. His unprofessionalism is his standout trait out this point. Williams has criticized the coaching staff and the playbook. Well, when you are only 21st in the league in passing yards, Caleb, you may have a point (that’s Sarcasm 101). Perhaps Williams should concentrate more on his completion percentage of 62.3 (28th in the NFL) instead of making negative headlines.

Let’s not put it all on the young fella’s inexperience and poor attitude, or the offense as a whole. How about that defense? Or, shall I say lack thereof? Chicago is not strong on this side of the ball either. Only five teams in the entire league have yielded more yards per game, and only four others have given up more points per contest than the Bears 29.3 PPG allowed. This defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks just five times in four games. Not a single team in the NFL has fewer QB takedowns.

Even when they pull their standard three-and-out, and the punting unit must kick it back to the opposition, it’s still pretty pathetic. There are 19 teams who do it better than Tory Taylor (who the team brought in all the way from Australia!) measured by yards per punt. It’s been said contending teams need positives in all three phases of the game. You’d be hard-pressed to find a positive in any phase of the Bears game.

I’m not alone in my assessment. According to ESPN, the odds on the Bears winning the Super Bowl are horrific. ESPN has Chicago at +50,000 to win it all, where the division leading Lions are +650. I’m not a gambling man, but to take a line from Tom Cruise in A Few Good Men about his clients being up on murder charges, “That sounds pretty bad to me.”

I have no vitriol toward the Chicago Bears at all. As a Cleveland Browns fan, I know misery all too well. But this is a team that is not trending in the right direction, and with that, the Bears are not a Real Deal.

Indianapolis Colts: Real Deal

LG: The Colts have been the very definition of mediocrity the last several years. They have not finished better than 9-8 since 2020. They have barely been a .500 team. This year they sit at 4-1 and are deservedly considered one of the best teams in the NFL. NFL.com has them as eighth in the Power Rankings and they have been more than steadily climbing up each week.

Daniel Jones, who found himself on the Vikings practice squad last year, is now third in passing yards, seventh in completion percentage, and seventh in quarterback rating. Harking back to his days with the Giants, he can still make plays with his legs, already amassing 56 yards on the ground.

Jonathan Taylor leads the league in rushing yards, yards per game,  and touchdowns and doesn’t have a fumble this year.

Combine this type of individual performances with the rest of the team, and the Colts are second in the league in touchdowns, leading the league in rushing touchdowns.

What makes the Colts real, though, is that they are a complete team. They are holding opposing quarterbacks to the eighth lowest quarterback rating, mostly by having the fourth most interceptions in the league and the sixth most sacks.

You might be able to run on the Colts, but you can’t score on the ground against them. They have given up the least touchdowns on the ground.

The Colts don’t have the easiest schedule in front of them. They have the 11^th easiest schedule in front of them, but it is sneaky difficult. The Chargers, Falcons, Steelers, Jaguars, and Seahawks are all playing beyond expectations right now. The Cardinals, Chiefs, Texans, and 49ers are not pushovers.

However, it seems that the Colts are going to win the tough games. They have already beat the surging Broncos.

What could change my mind: 

If Daniel Jones regresses and can’t put together a complete season, the Colts will fall with him.

The other side of the argument: The Indianapolis Colts are No Deal

SG: Sure, those SOB’s that bailed Baltimore for Indianapolis covertly in the middle of the night years ago are tied for 1st place in the AFC South. Good for them. With regard to good, their 4-1 record is as good as it’s going to get this season. To be clear, that was a harsh indictment of the franchise, and I really have no dog in any fight the Colts have this season. I just want to share a couple quick things as to why Indy is not the real deal in 2025.

They are hardly what the record says they are. Yes, they’ve banged out four wins against just one loss, but look at who they’ve “toppled.” Indy has knocked off the Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, and Broncos. Those teams are a combined 6-14. And their victory over Denver was by a single point. A play or two the other way, and a defeat could’ve just as easily happened.

I’ll give some major kudos to quarterback Daniel Jones. His exodus from the Giants to Indy was a career changer. Jones has found new life in the land of Larry Bird, John Mellencamp, David Letterman, and other famous folk from the state of Indiana. Jones is 3rd in the NFL in passing yards (1,290), 1st in QBR (79.7), and his two interceptions is good for 3rd in the league. But, other than the Broncos, the other four opponents Jones has faced are on the wrong side of yards allowed, so there is not a good barometer on what Jones has done to this point.

Let’s pivot away from the former #1 overall pick to other facets that indicate the Colts are not the real deal. In a couple weeks, the difficulty in schedule will ramp up. Among Indy’s opponents are the Steelers, Chiefs, and Falcons, all with records at or above .500. This is when Indy will be tested, and likely exposed. 

Defensively, the team is middle of the pack in yards allowed. Twenty-one teams have picked off more passes. And no team has fewer quarterback sacks than the guys who suit up in Lucas Oil Stadium.

As for the coaching staff, there is plenty of experience in years. However, the head coach, Shane Steichen only has two years of NFL head coaching experience under his belt. Those two seasons have yielded an even record of 17-17. Is the team’s current 4-1 mark more indicative, or is it the .500 mark leading into the 2025 campaign? Time will tell. Maybe this author is wrong, but maybe not. The real story will be written as the season plays out. But in my opinion, this brand of Colts has a lot to prove for me to change my mind about the fact that they are not a real deal.