Contrary to Popular Opinion: Caleb Williams Has the Talent to Break the Chicago Bears Curse.... Maybe

Illustration by Peter Townsend

After no drama at all, the Bears picked the flashiest, most electric, most NFL ready quarterback in the 2024 draft, Caleb Williams. He was the consensus overall number one pick, and it seemed like a no-brainer.

Williams went on to throw for over 3500 yards, a Bears rookie record, threw 20 passing touchdowns to 6 interceptions, and set several NFL records for passing attempts without an interception.

But the new consensus is that Williams was outplayed by Washington's Jayden Daniels, New England's Drake Maye, and Denver's Bo Nix. He has the lowest completion percentage of the four quarterbacks, the lowest passer rating, the third most (of the four players) passing yards, and the third most touchdowns. He probably would have been last if Drake Maye had played the entire season.

But the Bears fired his offensive coordinator mid-season and just a couple of weeks later fired his head coach. The Bear's original offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, proved uncreative and unable to tap into Williams' potential.

But Williams continually held the ball too long and wound up taking the second most sacks in NFL history. He routinely ignored open receivers and his accuracy, especially on long throws, was inconsistent at best.

But the offensive line performed well below average for an NFL team. Williams was continually running for his life and under immense pressure on each drop back forcing him to miss reads and hurry his progressions. The line's issues impacted the run game, forcing the Bears and Williams into obvious passing situations.

For every strength Williams showed last year, there was an equal weakness, and for every weakness there was an excuse. Who is the real Caleb Williams?

The are two realities for Williams. The first is that we really have no idea how to judge Williams. The offensive scheme was so awful, the coaching so bad, the offensive line so dysfunctional, not only can we not fairly evaluate Williams, but we can't fairly evaluate the entire Bears' offense.

The other reality is that he showed tremendous elusiveness and improvisation which made him a star at USC. He also showed amazing accuracy at times, moving the chains, using his legs, and kept calm at the most intense times. Many of Williams best drives came late in the fourth quarter. With better coaching and play calls, Williams looks like he could be the face of the franchise the Bears were expecting.

Credit to the Bears and GM Ryan Poles, they were active in free agency regarding the offensive line, drafted some playmakers, and hired the hottest offensive minded coach in the league, Ben Johnson. It seems like Williams should terrorize defenses this year, breaking the curse that the Bears ruin quarterbacks.

But things could go terribly wrong.

Does Ben Johnson Have to be the Smartest Guy in the Room?

Head Coach Johnson's resume speaks for itself and has been written up many times. Detroit had the most explosive offense last year and led the league in almost every category including scoring and yards per game. What else could you want?

SB Nation reported that Ben Johnson addressed the team early in training camp and said, “Be comfortable with being uncomfortable.” In fact, Johnson has mentioned many times that he wants to take Williams out of his comfort zone. An easy early example is the number of snaps Williams takes under center as opposed to out of the shotgun which has been Williams' mainstay since high school.

Is that really what you want to do?

For every offensive (or even defensive) coordinator, there is a natural conundrum. Do you force your offensive strategy on the team, or do you create an offensive strategy that supports their natural talent and strengths? The latter seems to make the most sense, but Johnson seems to be straddling that line.

It is true that Williams had a bunch of bad kindergarten teachers last season. He probably developed many bad habits and was not developed the right way. Johnson told the Chicago Sun-Times that he is treating Williams like a rookie. The Sun-Times described the coaching last season as "coaching malpractice by (head coach Matt) Eberflus and Waldron"

But is he forcing a scheme that isn't natural for Williams? Of course, Johnson's track record speaks for itself, but when he received Jared Goff, Goff had already been to a Super Bowl with coaching from equally decorated offensive mind and head coach Sean McVay.

Sports Illustrated's Albert Beer tempered the "uncomfortable" vibe by reporting "The idea was to have him (Williams) drinking from a firehose in the spring, and keep the load on him to start camp, and then begin to narrow the offense down to what Johnson, OC Declan Doyle, and the staff think he does best. Getting there is just a process."

That seems to make more sense. Only time will tell. Johnson does have a habit of out-thinking himself. When Detroit's playoff hopes were on the line last year, he called a trick play and Amon Ra St. Brown threw an interception, not Jared Goff. Not smart.

Know When to Run 'Em, Know When to Pass 'Em, Know When to Hold 'Em

Caleb Williams rushed for the seventh most yards for quarterbacks last year. With his legs, he was incredibly effective and incredibly inconsistent. He had a 70-yard game, a 56-yard game, a couple games with fortyish yards, a handful of games with thirtyish yards, and a bunch of games with 15 or few yards.

He didn't seem to know when to scramble, looking for an open man, and when to take off downfield. Last year's coaches seemed to tell him reign him in when he ran too much. But Johnson is intrigued by the possibility. He told the Sun-Times, “The exciting thing for me is we got some quarterbacks that are pretty athletic players, as well. Maybe they can do some damage on the ground, also.”

The dual threat quarterback has been elusive for head coaches and offensive coordinators for a while. Michael Vick, Robert Griffin III, and Kordell Stewart could not take the punishment. Justin Fields tried it in Chicago, but could never master his passing game.

While there are many mobile quarterbacks who are very hard to sack including Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers (he may have perfected the mobile quarterback in his prime), there is only one successful running quarterback: Lamar Jackson. Almost like Shohei Ohtani, he has been rewarded for his uniqueness with two MVP's.

Can Coach Johnson teach Williams when to gain yards and when to continue looking for a receiver? Could he design some runs for Williams without getting him hurt? He doesn't have expertise in this area as Jared Goff was about as mobile as Peyton Manning.

The Offensive Line Will Need to Meet the Hype

Major additions have been made to the offensive line including Joe Thuney from Kansas City, Jonah Jackson from the Rams, and Drew Dalman from the Falcons. Thuney was an All-Pro the last two years, a Pro-Bowler the last three years, six Super Bowl starts and four Super Bowl wins. Though he is 32, his latest trajectory looks pretty good.

By almost any free agency list, Dalman was considered the top center available on the market. Uncharacteristically, the Bears moved quickly and closed Dalman very early in free agency. Talking to the Chicago Bears web site, Johnson believes we haven't seen the best of Dalman yet, "He is still learning. He's still growing as a player. He has not hit his ceiling either. He has already asked me several times, 'What did you see on tape that I can get better at?' That's the type of person we're getting."

Jackson is more of an enigma. 2025 will be his sixth season and third team. He had a Pro-Bowl nod in 2021, but hasn't reached that level of success again, and his time with the Rams received very mixed reviews.

Darnell Wright is the Bears right tackle and is one of the few holdovers from last year. But left tackle is a question mark for the Bears.

The Bears wanted to draft one of the top offensive linemen available but were thwarted by earlier choices by New England, New Orleans, and the New York Jets. Interestingly, Kansas City took Josh Simmons from Ohio State at number 32 and is getting excellent reviews. Bears fans will cringe when they remember that Kansas City drafted Patrick Mahomes while the Bears drafted Mitchell Trubisky. Could this be a repeat if Josh Simmons becomes an elite left tackle?

Battling for the starting role is last year's starting tackle Braxton Jones who is recovering from ankle surgery, second-year veteran Kiran Amegadjie and rookie Ozzy Trapilo.

On paper, this unit looks revamped, refurbished, and revitalized. It will be critical for the line to punch holes for RB D'Andre Swift as well as protect Williams. If one or the other doesn't happen, this whole offense falls apart.

New Playmakers Must Make Plays

To show how bad the Bears offense was last year, DJ Moore had 966 yards on 98 receptions. It was the third lowest yardage total of his career and remember that Moore played for Carolina most of his career. 98 receptions sounds good, but it is buoyed by the abnormal amount of screen passes he caught. This bit of strangeness led to a career low of 9.9 yards per reception. His career low before that was 12.4. To put that in perspective, in 2022, he had 888 yards on 63 receptions. He caught 36 less passes that year and but only had 78 less yards.

The point is that we really can't judge the players performance from last year's offense. TE Cole Kmet had a similar experience last year in that his personal numbers were extremely down. Career lows, except for his rookie season, across the board. The end result is we don't know how to evaluate Rome Odunze.

Odunze looked outstanding at times, and he seems to tower over cornerbacks. The Bears drafted Odunze in 2024 at the expense of not taking an offensive lineman. The talent looks like it's there. The Bears will be looking for results this season.

The same goes for newly drafted TE Colston Lovejoy and WR Luther Burden III. They both came into training camp injured and have been slowly getting into the action. All rookies are given a certain amount of slack, but Poles drafted Lovejoy instead of an elite defensive lineman. Johnson loved two tight end sets in Detroit. Kmet and Lovejoy could be a powerful duo.

Meanwhile Burden has big shoes to fill in replacing Keenan Allen, one of the best receivers of his generation. When Williams needed a completion, Allen was the guy who got open. Burden is used to being "the guy" but now he is just "one of the guys."

To help Williams process the field faster than the speed of NFL defenses, he needs open receivers. All these receivers have great hands, but there is no catch without daylight between receiver and defender. Maybe more than anything else, receivers' ability to drive seperation will be key to Williams success.

Conclusion

Caleb Williams has the possibility to be the generational talent that the Bears were hoping for on that Draft Day in 2024. He has some of the top weapons in the league at receiver and tight end. They have some of the most exciting offensive rookies coming out of the draft.

They have the best offensive mind in football. He will definitely not want the Bears or Williams to squander his legacy. Ben Johnson wants to be in the conversation with coaches like McVay, Andy Reid, and Nick Sirianni. The business between Williams and Johnson is a partnership.

They will live and die together.