Contrary to Popular Opinion: Coaches are the True MVPs in the NFL

When Tom Brady moved to Tampa Bay the NFL world was interested in answering a specific question:

“Was the Patriots success due to Bill Belichik or Tom Brady?”

The question is important because it asks if the players are simply a vehicle for great coaches or are great coaches simply lucky to coach great players (making the general manager the real genius in this option). In either case, it minimizes the accomplishments of either the coach or the player.

In Brady’s case, the answer was obvious. He left New England and won a Super Bowl in Tampa Bay without Belichick. That year he threw for 4,633 yards, 40 TD to 12 interceptions and a 102 QB rating. The year after, though no Super Bowl, he threw for 5,316 yards, 43 TD to 12 interceptions, and another 102 rating. He didn’t miss a step.

Conversely, the Bradyless Patriots went 7-9 in 2020, 10-7 in 2021, and 8-9 in 2022, culminating in Belichick’s departure.

But Tampa Bay had Bruce Arians as their coach, an offensive genius in his own right. So, the question is still outstanding. And maybe in the New England case, we should be asking about offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, not Belichick.

Here is the real question, who is the real MVP, the player or the offensive play caller/designer?

The Awesome

Patrick Mahomes is a great quarterback and probably would be a great quarterback playing for any team and playing for any coach. Would he be NFL MVP twice before he was 27 or be Super Bowl MVP three times before he was 30? I don’t think so. That is the Any Reid effect.

Andy Reid was already a great offensive coach before going to the Chiefs. In the 12 years he was at the Eagles from 2000 to 2012 the Eagles were top 10 in points 8 times. Mahomes is fantastic, he became a phenomenon under Andy Reid.

Justin Herbert is a great quarterback who has never played under a great offensive mind. Jim Harbaugh is a good head coach but no offensive superstar. The Chargers offensive coordinators have been Greg Roman, Kellen Moore (now Saints head coach), and Joe Lombardi since he has been in Los Angeles. Roman is new to Los Angeles so the jury is out, but Moore (Saints have the 8^th lowest QB rating in the league) and Lombardi haven’t had phenomenal success in the NFL. Herbert has thrown for over 4000 yards in every season he has played a full season except one (over 5000 in one season), despite not playing for a top offensive mind. He has never had a QB rating under 94.

Let’s talk about Roman for a second, though. No coach has ever figured out the running quarterback in the NFL. Michael Vick never became the ultra weapon people he thought he should be, and Robert Griffin flamed out. Meanwhile Lamar Jackson has two MVP’s, probably should have had a third, and has become as great as a passer as he is a runner. Roman figured that out during his tenure in Baltimore. Could he do the same for Herbert?

Maybe the case that proves the point for both Mahomes and Herbert is Matthew Stafford. In 12 years with Detroit, Stafford was an aerial magician. Every year he played 16 games (8 seasons), he threw for over 4,000 yards except for one season. Like Herbert, he threw for 5,000 yards once. In every year with Detroit, except for one, he threw over 10 interceptions. He threw over 16 interceptions four times, including 20 his rookie year. Despite playing alongside Calvin Johnson, Stafford never won a playoff game.

In Stafford’s first year with the Rams (2021) under offensive superstar coach Sean McVey, Stafford won the Super Bowl and was named Super Bowl MVP. There are many factors to winning a Super Bowl (defense!), but quarterback is definitely one of them.  McVey changed Stafford’s success immediately. Stafford threw for his third most yards in 2021, tied his career high for touchdowns (41), and had his best QB rating of his career despite throwing 17 interceptions.

In the years following the Super Bowl win, Stafford only threw 10 interceptions once again in 2023 (10 exactly). This year by Week 13, Stafford is on track to throw for 4353 yards and 45 touchdowns, he has only thrown 4 interceptions so far and has a career high QB rating at 111.7. He is the odds-on favorite for MVP.

Like Herbert, Stafford was already great without elite coaching. Like Mahomes, a great coach made him fantastic, and McVay levelled up Stafford to Super Bowl MVP and a possible NFL MVP.

The Resurgent

The most interesting cases that provoke the argument around player versus coach is the recent turnarounds for quarterbacks that were left for dead.

Geno Smith, the Heisman Trophy winner, was allowed to start two years with the New York Jets. He threw for just over 3,000 yards in his rookie year and just over 2,500 yards his second year. He threw 21 and 13 interceptions, quarterback rating of 66.5 and 77.5 respectively. That was the end of Geno Smith as a starting quarterback.

Three years later, after two years with Seattle playing behind Russel Wilson, they took a chance making him their starter. For three years, Smith threw for over 4,000 yards (he only played 15 games in 2023 but was on track for 4,000), over 20 touchdowns (30 one year), and quarterback ratings over 92 (over 100 one year). He was Comeback Player of the Year in 2022.

Smith started with the New York Jets who have never been accused of having a good offense or developing a quality quarterback since Joe Namath (that may be a stretch, maybe we just say the last 10 to 15 years). Aaron Rodgers could not even flourish in the Jets offense, even when they added Davante Adams. Then Smith goes to Seattle where he gets consummate cheerleader and leader Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron (2022-2023) and Ryan Grubb (2024). Both coordinators were known for great passing/play design and creating connections between quarterback and receiver.

Smith then leaves Seattle for Las Vegas which reunites him with Carroll but also play caller Chip Kelly. Smith may not even throw 3,000 yards this year and has a quarterback rating of 84. Chip Kelly was fired midseason for the second time in his NFL career.

Sam Darnold, third overall draft selection in 2018, was even more unfortunate. Not only did he start his career with the New York Jets, but then he went to Carolina. In those five years of starting, he only threw over 3,000 yards once (3,024 in 2019) and his highest QB rating was 84.3 and his lowest was 71.9. He didn’t finish his final year with Carolina as a starter as he only played 6 games and the next year he was done as a starter.  His touchdown to interception rating was astonishing, but not in a good way. Those five years were 15/15, 19/13, 9/11, 9/13, and 7/3.  

In 2024, the Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy to be their starting quarterback, but he injured his knee in preseason which took him out for the season. Unfortunately for the Vikings, Sam Darnold was their only choice at QB. How fortunate they were.

Under extremely well-regarded coach Kevin O’Connell (who would be named Coach of the Year in 2024) who turned Kirk Cousins into one of the top quarterbacks in the league over the last few years, Darnold had a career year. Throwing for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 102.3 quarterback rating, Darnold was named to the Pro Bowl.

The Seahawks noticed Darnold and saw a trend after the success they had with Smith. They hired superstar offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak (who gets credit for some of Brock Purdy’s success) and effectively stole Darnold from the Vikings and the rest of the league. So far this season, he is on track for 4,126 yards and 26 touchdowns with a new career high 103.1 quarterback rating. The Seahawks are a top three team in the league right now.

Darnold and Smith were destined to be backup quarterbacks for the rest of their career, which would have been a huge mistake. This is not just a change of scenery; this is matching quality players with quality coaches. In fact, Darnold and Smith should sue the NFL for fraud and wasting years of their professional career for partnering them with bad coaches.

What other quarterbacks have been left behind because they didn’t have the right coach? Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones (out for the season) are on fire right now. Time will tell what happens with Justin Fields and Jacoby Brissett is easily the right choice of Kyler Murray.

The Comeback

Caleb Williams was hailed as the most NFL ready quarterback in the 2024 draft, maybe in a generation, and it was an easy pick for the Bears at number 1 overall. He was a Heisman trophy winner, a dual threat, with a knack for improvisation and big plays. His rookie year was one of the biggest disasters on record.

They used to say that as a lead singer, Eddie Vedder wasn’t a bad guitarist. It was meant to be an insult. As a great defensive coordinator, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus was a terrible head coach and worse offensive visionary. Both Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron were fired mid-season. Their tenure with developing Caleb Williams has been called “coaching malpractice”.

The result was a rookie quarterback with poor fundamentals, a poor understanding of NFL offenses, and a worse understanding of NFL defenses. Throw in a porous offensive line and you have a rookie quarterback who threw for 3,541 yards, 20 touchdowns, and a 87.8 quarterback rating. Not terrible numbers (especially compared to Smith and Darnold’s rookie numbers), but not what was expected. The Bears lost 10 in a row and Williams took the second most sacks in a year in NFL history and the most sacks by a rookie.

The eye test was vicious. He didn’t look confident, missed open receivers, panicked constantly, looked frustrated on the sidelines and though he only threw 6 interceptions, it was typically attributed to the fact that he held on to the ball too long, taking the sack. He had no rapport with the offense, evidenced by the NFL leading delay of game and false start penalties.

The Bears had a solution. The most coveted coach on the market and the most well-regarded offensive mind in football was Ben Johnson, offense coordinator for the Detroit Lions. Detroit had just led the league in almost every offensive category including yards and points per game. Watching a Lions game was pure entertainment.

It wasn’t clear that Johnson was totally responsible for the Lion’s success. After all, Jared Goff was developed by Sean McVey, typically threw for 4,000 yards a year, and already went to a Super Bowl. But, after Goff joined Johnson, he averaged more touchdowns (29 to 25) and a higher quarterback rating (94 to 99) per season. This year without Johnson, he is on track for his lowest yardage total with the Lions and though his quarterback rating has remained consistent, he is on track for his lowest QBR in a full season with the Lions (57.7, previous was 61.1).

Johnson said nothing that Williams learned from his rookie year would continue into the 2025 season as he installed pre-snap discipline, taught him when to stay in the pocket, when to bide time, and when to take off and run, he taught him how to scan his progressions, he changed his footwork, he fixed the offensive line, he fixed the rushing game, he changed everything.

The result is evident. Williams is on track for 3,800 yards and 24 touchdowns this year, with only a mild change in quarterback rating at 88.2. Last year the Bears’ passing offense was 31^st in yards and 25^th in touchdowns. This year, they are 15^th in yards and 18^th in touchdowns. Not at the top of the league, yet, but huge improvement.

As a team, the enhancements are even more dramatic. Last year the Bears were 28^th in points and 32^nd (that is last) in yards. This year they 8^th in points and 6^th in yards. Last year they were 5-12 in last place in the NFC North, this year (as of this writing) they are 10-4, leading the NFC North and currently the 2 seed in the NFC.

Williams isn’t the perennial Pro Bowler or MVP candidate, yet. He struggles with accuracy and decision making, but the improvements are dramatic, evident, and visible. It looks like he is on the way to joining the top quarterback tier and it is easy to envision that appearance for next year. In fact, with just a couple more completions per game, there is still time to see that leap this year.

Conclusion

It seems that the coach/play caller is the secret sauce to the NFL team.

Doesn’t the argument fall down because Waldron was both Smith’s coordinator as well as Williams’? Not really. It is clear that Waldron does not know how to develop a new quarterback (Williams), but it is equally clear that he knows how to run a high energy, powerful offense (Smith) given some veteran experience.

And let’s face it. Brady is the GOAT, and that can’t be questioned, and his success isn’t predicated on his coach, but you can’t say that Arians and McDaniels had nothing to do with his success either.

However, it is clear that if you give a great coach a bad quarterback he won’t succeed. If you give a great offensive play caller a good (doesn’t have to be great) quarterback, he might change your franchise. If you give a great quarterback a bad coach, he’ll probably have some degree of success but not reach his potential. It is the coach that enables a player to reach his potential and the potential of the entire offense. Without the right coach, the team will not be able to be successful.

We have consistently blamed quarterback play for the poor performance of the offense, but Smith, Daniels, and Darnold refute that claim (it will be interesting to see what happens if Justin Fields ever gets a good offensive coordinator). Show me a poor offense and I’ll show you a struggling coordinator. We have always given the quarterback credit for the success of the offense, but he isn’t the actual designer of said offense (see Matthew Stafford), he doesn’t rush the football, doesn’t run the routes, and doesn’t catch the ball.

Of course, like Seinfeld or Friends, a great offense is an ensemble cast of coaches, quarterback, running back, receivers, tight ends, and offensive line. And a team will not win without a great defense. The NFL is the ultimate team sport.

However, if you need to name one person on offense as MVP, it is the offensive play caller that orchestrates all the moving parts of that ensemble cast – calling the plays, designing the rushing offense, designing the blocking, designing the pass offense.