Contrary to Popular Opinion: JJ McCarthy is not an NFL Quarterback

The 2024 and 2025 drafts were remarkably different from each other. Whereas the 2025 draft was marked by freakish edge rushers, transcendent running backs, and a few high-end offensive lineman, the 2024 draft was a quarterback haul.

In the 2025 draft, NFL scouts refused to believe the hype and conducted their own thorough investigations into player performance and evaluations. See the Shedeur Sanders draft slide as an example.

But in 2024, there seemed to be a herd mentality taking over GM brains that if they didn’t take a quarterback this draft, they would be left behind.

I am not saying it was all hype. For now, Caleb Williams is still the Bear’s path to the playoffs. The Commanders’ choice of Jayden Daniels, Offensive Rookie of the Year, is a winner. The Patriots Drake Maye looks like the future for that organization. Michael Penix, Jr. took over the starting job from Kirk Cousins in Atlanta (costing them millions) and is expected to start this year. Bo Nix surprised everyone with a fairly decent campaign for the Broncos.

That is six quarterbacks in the top 12 draft choices. The sixth being JJ McCarthy of the Vikings. McCarthy sat out 2024 due to a knee injury in preseason, famously paving the way for Sam Darnold to have a career year and a payday. Darnold is gone to the Seahawks leaving McCarthy to lead the Vikings offense.

CBS Sports recently ranked the worst quarterback rooms in the NFL and Minnesota turned up as the fourth worst room.

I think it is worse than that. Assuming Aaron Rodgers eventually signs with Pittsburgh, I think Minnesota should be the second worse after the Browns. Here’s why.

The Numbers Don’t Add Up

McCarthy’s numbers in college not only don’t jump off the screen, they don’t even make it on to my screen. I had to scroll down.

In 2023, McCarthy was 35th in passing yards among FBS quarterbacks. Penix, Nix, and Daniels were 1, 2, and 5 respectively. Cam Ward, this year’s number one pick, was 8th in 2023 and first in 2024. Williams and Maye were 10th and 11th.

McCarthy was 44th in passing touchdowns. Nix, Daniels, and Penix were 1, 2 and 3. Williams was 10th. Maye was actually just ahead of McCarthy.

Yes, his quarterback rating was high, 10th, because he only threw four interceptions and had a really high completion percentage, 72.3. But that is because he was dinking. Daniels, who led in rating, had five less attempts than McCarthy, 4 less completions, and 900 more yards and 18 more touchdowns.

Williams had 56 more attempts than McCarthy, Maye had 93 more, Nix had 138 more, and Penix had 223 more. These sounds like NFL quarterbacks with NFL numbers and NFL readiness.

But He Won

Not only did he win, but I do believe, like his Michigan Wolverine head coach Jim Harbaugh, that he is a winner. He is a fierce competitor who understands the game well. But who, at the quarterback position, is not a competitor.

Looking more closely at Michigan’s numbers from their championship year, we can see why they won. Running back Blake Corum rushed for 1,265 yards in 2023, good for 18th in the FBS. But he was first in rushing touchdowns. McCarthy rushed for 202 yards, so not really a dual threat guy.

Michigan’s defense was second in yards/game, first in points per game, second in passing yards per game, and 6th in rushing yards per game. They absolutely ruled on that side of the football. Apparently, defense does win championships

Conclusion

It seems that McCarthy was a game manager. He didn’t turn the ball over, made smart decisions on check downs, didn’t take too many risks, got the ball to Corum, and let the defense hold oppositions to less than 11 points a game.

This feels like a AJ McCarron/Mac Jones situation that will not play out in the NFL very well.

The upside is that he is on a very good team. Justin Jefferson could make any quarterback look good, but he’ll get bored catching four yard passes at some point. Jordan Addison is no slouch, and Aaron Jones is a fantastic running back. And they have a defense (most interceptions last year, fourth fewest passing yards). And a great coach.

Using his formula from Michigan might work, but it isn’t likely. NFL defenses are too fast, forcing most quarterbacks to throw downfield at some point. Decision making in college was much simpler than what he’ll find in the NFL.

The Vikings are a strong operation in a strong central division with the Packers and Lions (and maybe Bears), but the McCarthy decision will not end the way they hoped.