Contrary to Popular Opinion: Most of the NFL Coaching Hires Will Fail

This NFL offseason saw an unusual number of head coach replacements including two playoff teams (Bills and Steelers). In a year with fewer replacements needed, it is difficult to find quality candidates. In a year like this one, it is impossible that everyone will find suitable candidates.

Add to the massive need to replace offensive and defensive coordinators and you have a huge run on coaches from across the league. It would be impossible for everyone to get it right.

It seems like the final results look like hiring nostalgically (like a Pete Carroll), hiring offensive minds with no quality defensive coordinator support, hiring defensive minds with quality offensive coordinator support, or hiring the right coach at the right time for the organization.

Let’s rank the head coach replacements in the league.

10. Kevin Sefanski hired by Falcons

The only thing more shocking that Stefanski was rehired by an NFL team as a head coach was how fast it happened. He was one of the first coaches to be hired this offseason. In 6 years, he compiled a 45-56 record. He had two winning seasons, winning Coach of the Year both times, presumably because the voters thought winning in Cleveland is so incredulous. He won one playoff game.

Stefanski had Baker Mayfield as a quarterback for the first three seasons, but his time in Cleveland will be remembered for the quarterback catastrophe the last three years. Cleveland had 10 starting quarterbacks in that period that included Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson, and Shedeur Sanders.

Stefanski inherits a hungry Falcons organization with oft-injured Michael Penix at quarterback (or oft-intercepted Kirk Cousins) and maybe the best player in the league, Bijan Robinson. The Falcons looked playoff bound at times last season, but the Stefanski hire was not the answer.

Conclusion: Fail

9. Mike McCarthy hired by Steelers

Mike McCarthy has a sterling resume. He went 125-77 with the Packers and then he went 10-8 in the playoffs and one Super Bowl win. With the Cowboys, he had three seasons in a row where the team went 12-5 but could never get to the NFC Championship game.

Though he has worked with great quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre and Dak Prescott, he doesn’t really feel like the offensive mind that is being churned out in the Sean McVay/Matt LaFleur/Ben Johnson era. He feels like a guy who won a Super Bowl 16 years ago.

I think Pittsburgh fans would much rather have Mike Tomlin, and this was an almost non-serious move by an organization that is very serious about football.

Conclusion: Fail

8. Mike LaFleur Hired by the Arizona Cardinals

Hiring a first-time coach to a bad team is a bad idea. Yes, it worked out for the Bears, but can that really happen again? Arizona is arguably in the toughest division in the NFL given the presence of the 49ers, Seahawks, and the Rams (assuming Matthew Stafford plays next year). Though there is some young talent on the team like Marvin Harrison, Jr., the quarterback situation is a mess.

And don’t give LaFleur credit for the success of the Rams’ offense. This is Sean McVay’s offense, he designs it, he calls the plays.

Put this altogether and you have a recipe for disaster. Though it probably won’t be LaFleur’s fault, he will be back as an offensive coordinator in the next two years.

Conclusion: Fail

7. Jesse Minter Hired by the Ravens

The Ravens famously fired a very successful and very well-liked coach in John Harbaugh due to a lack of playoff success but still had one Super Bowl win.

Minter was on the defensive coaching staff for Baltimore from 2017-2020 and was the defensive coordinator of the Chargers in 2025. The Chargers defense was 9^th in points allowed, fifth in yards allowed per game, and fifth in passing yards per game. By all measures, a very successful campaign.

For a new head coach, you want to give him a solid head start from a talent perspective. Rebuilds for new head coaches typically have not gone well recently (but don’t tell that to Bears’ Ben Johnson). The Ravens have a very good defense, Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Derek Henry.

The problem with the hire is that they did not provide him with a top offensive coordinator. Declan Doyle comes to the Ravens from Chicago, but head coach Ben Johnson designed the offense and called the plays.

A new play caller married with a first time head coach is not a recipe for success.

Conclusion: An OK hire.

6. Robert Saleh Hired by Titans

Robert Saleh is only one year removed from being fired from the New York Jets. After three years and change with the Jets he was 20-36, basically handing the Jets back to ownership in the same state he took it over. Though he had multiple young quarterbacks like Zach Wilson and very experienced quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, and even a small time with Davante Adams, the offense never got off the starting line.

The Jets defense was formidable. In 2024, the Jets were third in yards per game and fourth in passing yards per game. When he returned to the 49ers in 2025 as defensive coordinator, San Franciso was 11^th in points allowed even though they had multiple injuries to key players.

Clearly, Saleh isn’t an offensive expert which is what Titans need, and he doesn’t have a track record of winning without an offensive coaching partner. Former Giants head coach (fired last year), Brian Daboll is the new Titans offensive coordinator which is not instilling confidence in the fanbase.

Saleh is well regarded as a coach and motivator, but that will only go so far without an offense.

Conclusion: An OK hire.

5. Jeff Hafley Hired by the Dolphins

Jeff Hafley was the Packers defensive coordinator last season. With Micah Parsons, the Packers defense was formidable, but without him, they were not as intimidating. The Packers were 11^th in points allowed per game, 12^th in yards per game, 11^th in passing yards per game, and 18^th in rushing yards per game.

So, a little better than middle of the pack in most metrics. Though he has been a defensive coach for a while, he has only been an NFL defensive coordinator for a year (he was also defensive coordinator for Ohio State), which makes the hire a little suspect.

His offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, was responsible for CJ Stoud’s breakout rookie season when the Texans unexpectedly won the AFC South and a playoff game. However, he was fired after Stroud’s sophomore slump. The Dolphins were awful last year, and he was their passing game coordinator for a team that lost Tyreek Hill and benched their franchise quarterback.

At a high level, Hafley isn’t a terrible hire and he doesn’t have a terrible offensive coordinator, but trying to turnaround the Dolphins is going to be awfully difficult. Hafley will have to be exceptional to make this work. Brian Flores and Mike McDaniels couldn’t do it.

Conclusion: An Ok Hire.

4. Todd Monken Hired by the Browns

Monken has been an NFL offensive coordinator since 2016 for the Buccaneers, Browns, and Ravens (with a two year stint for Georgia). The Browns badly need to bring stability into their offense as well as the team as a whole. This will be nothing more than a complete culture rebuild.

And there will be enormous pressure to capitalize on Myles Garret’s prime years.

As the Ravens offensive Coordinator, he built a scheme that is maybe the only true running quarterback system to work, maybe ever. Lamar Jackson’s success the last three years (including an MVP) are tied to Monken’s success as an offensive designer.

This was a good hire for the Browns, but it doesn’t fee like a quick turnaround timeframe.

Conclusion: Good Hire.

3. Joe Brady Hired by the Bills

I guess this should read more like a promotion. This is Josh Allen’s team, and the Bills want him to be happy. Joe Brady has been his quarterbacks coach or offensive coordinator since 2022 and Allen’s performance has been exceptional in that time period.

It felt odd to fire Sean McDermott and then promote from within. If you think the team just needed a change (because most would agree that McDermott has been pretty good), why wouldn’t you shake up the whole coaching roster? Including the front office?

Clearly, the Bills need some offensive weapons for Allen (besides James Cook) and a much better defense. Jim Leonhard has been hired as Defensive Coordinator and this will be his first time as a defensive coordinator. He only has two years coaching in the NFL, mostly defensive backs coach or defensive pass game coordinator. This hire doesn’t feel like the help that Brady and Allen will need on the defensive side.

Conclusion: Good Hire.

2. Klint Kubiak Hired by the Las Vegas Raiders

Since 2013, Kubiak has been either the passing game coordinator, quarterbacks coach, or offensive coordinator for the Vikings, Broncos, 49ers, Saints, and, most recently, the Super Bowl Seahawks.

Kubiak has been involved in turnarounds and has helped quarterbacks like Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, and, most recently, Sam Darnold. He knows offenses, most importantly the passing game, extremely well and the Las Vegas Raiders have a completely dysfunctional offense. 

The good news is that they have the Number 1 overall draft pick. The bad news is that the quarterback class is not great this year. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza predicts to be the number 1 pick and there won’t be a better coach than Kubiak to help the kid along.

To do Kubiak justice though, the Raiders will have to give him a long leash because there are no silver bullets. Multiple years of free agency and draft picks will need to occur before the Raiders can start to be relevant again.

Conclusion: Great Hire.

1. John Harbaugh Hired by the Giants

There is so much wrong with the New York Giants that there is really nothing a head coach can necessarily do to fix everything. What a coach can do is start to put the Giants back on a winning path. John Harbaugh is probably the right guy to do that.

You have an interesting quarterback in Jaxson Dart and an even more interesting running back in Cam Skattebo. You have a bunch of young, directionless players with some talent on both sides of the football.

Hiring Steve Nagy as Offensive Coordinator knowing that Andy Reid is really the brains behind the Chiefs offensive operation was a pretty big mistake. Harbaugh starts off hamstrung immediately.

Nonetheless, the Bills and Steelers would probably have done just about anything to have been able to hire Harbaugh.

Conclusion: Great Hire.