Could the Era of the Superstar Quarterback Be Ending?

Illustration by Thomas Dyson

Twenty-six Super Bowls have been played this century. Even if you’re just a casual NFL fan, you could probably list most of the winning quarterbacks. Brady, of course, Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger. All household names, in or bound for the Hall of Fame. There are, however, a few exceptions.

Remember Trent Dilfer? In 2000, he helped the Baltimore Ravens win the title. What about Brad Johnson? Two years after Dilfer’s victory, Johnson won with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While they both had solid careers, neither of which will be headed to the Hall of Fame. What they did have were terrific defenses behind them. So too did journeyman Joe Flacco when he got his ring with the Ravens in 2012. Another name that stands out is Nick Foles, who seemed to be at the right place at the right time with the Philadelphia Eagles and their innovative offense in 2017.

Then, of course, there’s Sam Darnold. While it’s possible that he experiences a semi-late career renaissance ala Kurt Warner and gets to a couple more championships, the odds aren’t really in his favor. Nonetheless, Darnold’s story is fascinating. After four teams essentially decided that they didn’t want him around, he goes and wins a Super Bowl with the fifth one.

Now, if Darnold is in fact a one-and-done SB winner like the guys mentioned above, he may just be another footnote in NFL history. But, it’s possible that he could actually end up being something more. For one thing, after his great season with the Minnesota Vikings, he seems to have started the whole “reclamation” trend around the league, and players like Daniel Jones and Malik Willis can thank him for their big paydays.

Secondly, Darnold has proven that teams don’t necessarily need a superstar at the quarterback position to win. Look at the divisional round of the playoffs. Of the QBs on those eight teams, you can make the case that only Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen are true stars. While guys like Bo Nix and C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams may get there eventually, they’re not there yet.

Look at Darnold’s counterpart in the Super Bowl. While Drake Maye had a fantastic season, it’s way too early to put him in any sort of elite category. But, he did enough to get his team to the big game, if not enough to actually take home the trophy. Or, perhaps more accurately, he didn’t do anything to screw things up on the way there. This leads me to my bigger point. Maybe Darnold will act as a wakeup call of sorts for the NFL, demonstrating that having a complete team is much more important than having a stud under center.

Football is truly the ultimate team sport. Unlike baseball or basketball where star players can almost single-handedly win games by themselves, football requires contributions from everyone. A great QB means nothing if he has no protection or butter-fingered receivers. Darnold proved that you don’t need to be an MVP candidate to win; you just need to make good decisions and get the ball to the right people at the right times. Having a bone-crushing defense (as the Patriots painfully discovered) doesn’t hurt either.

The other reason why having a well-rounded team is so important concerns money. While the Los Angeles Dodgers can spend pretty much whatever they want without worrying about a salary cap (yet) in MLB, that’s just not true for the NFL. This means that if you give a handful of guys huge contracts, almost certainly you need to scrimp in some areas.

If you look at the QBs of the final four teams in the playoffs, you’ll see some interesting salary numbers. Stafford leads the way with $42 million per year, which sounds like a lot (and it is), but it’s good for only 16th in the league. Darnold is two spots behind, making $33.5 million. But Nix and Maye? They make almost $14 million – combined. These (relatively) low salaries enabled teams to spread their money around. For example, Nix’s Broncos had the best offensive line in the league. Denver also had an elite defense, as did Seattle and New England.

The NFL is certainly a copycat league, and if something works for one team, you can be sure that other teams will try it out. This is what’s going to make the next few seasons very interesting. If any of those reclamation quarterbacks hit, this could signal a turning point. Rather than hoping for the next superstar, maybe teams would instead look for capable and reliable guys who won’t cost them the GDP of a small country.

Of course, it’s also quite possible that things will quickly revert to form and that the usual suspects – Mahomes, Allen, Jackson – continue to dominate. In this case, it may take another decade before an outlier like Darnold shows up again.