Contrary to Popular Opinion: Ranking MLB's Second Place Teams

This early in the year a three-game winning streak, or a three-game losing streak could completely change the standings for a  division. However, it seems that first place teams are starting to pull away, and they seem to be settling on the preseason favorites.

The second-place teams are more interesting. Are they real? Can they last the complete 162 game season? Will they make the playoffs?

Interestingly, Toronto, Seattle, Philadelphia, and the Mets are not among the second-place contenders right now. Will they turn things around and upend the current second place teams?

Here are the current second place teams ranked in order of probability to make the playoffs based on our analysis.

1.      Detroit Tigers

Did we not think that Detroit would have a good pitching staff? No, we didn’t think that. They are currently 9^th in ERA, 14^th in WHIP, and have given up the 7^th fewest runs in the league. Thank you Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez.

Can their hitting keep up? Apparently, it can. Spencer Torkleson seems to be energized, and the Tigers are 7^th in slugging, 6^th in OPS, and 11^th in runs scored.

Though their record is barely over .500 (nowhere close to the Rays, St. Louis, or the Padres), this feels like the most complete second place team out there. Though it may be fashionable to get excited about the White Sox success, they will not really compete for a playoff spot.

Of course, this was all before Skubal went on the injured list. We’ll see how the Tigers react.

2.      San Diego Padres

The Padres, of course, have all the star power: Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets, Nick Castellanos, and Fernando Tatis, Jr. make the lineup look extremely formidable.

The stats don’t always back that star power up, though. The Padres are 22^nd in slugging, 25^th in OPS, and 20^th in runs scored. Further, they are 18^th in ERA but have given up the 11^th fewest runs in the league.

Yet, they are winning, 20-13, as of this writing.

What happens when these hitters start locking in? What happens when the pitching turns a corner? The Padres have all the makeup of a playoff team, and they have little competition from Arizona, Colorado, and San Francisco.

3.      St. Louis Cardinals

Much has been written about the uber-hot National League Central with every team over .500. Yes, that includes Pittsburgh. Though young, and supposedly in the middle of a rebuild, the numbers show St. Louis as a strong contender right now.

The Cardinals are 9^th in slugging, 9^th in OPS, and 9^th in runs scored. Pretty consistent. Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson are downright dangerous right now.

The pitching tells a slightly different story. St. Louis is 23^rd in ERA and dead last in strikeouts. And they give up a ton of runs. They have given up the 9^th most runs in the MLB. It definitely feels like the hitting will not be able to keep up with the poor pitching, but the wins are piling up at the moment.

4.      Texas Rangers

Since winning the World Series, the Rangers have not really recovered that form again. Corey Seager is batting .213 with a .725 OPS. Instead, Brandon Nimmo and Josh Jung are leading the charge.

Offensively, the Rangers are 25^th in slugging, 25^th in OPS, and 28^th in runs scored. 

Like the Tigers, the pitching tells a different story. The Rangers, with a revitalized Jacob DeGrom, are 5^th in ERA, 6^th in WHIP, 10^th in strikeouts, and have given up the 5^th fewest runs in the league. These guys are a juggernaut.

And it is coming from the bullpen as well. The Rangers have a league best 2.74 ERA from the bullpen that has only two players returning from last season.

Texas isn’t .500 yet and they must be worried about the Astros and the Mariners getting hot. Rangers bats will equally need to get hot to retain their standing.

5.      Tampa Bay Rays

Despite the Yankees big time start to the year and the much promoted 1-2 punch of Ben Rice and Aaron Judge, the Rays are right behind them in the standings (1.5 games back).

How are they doing it? They are 23^rd in slugging, 19^th in OPS, and 17^th in runs scored. It doesn’t feel like an offense that will challenge the Yankees in September or stay ahead of a very hungry Blue Jays team.

However, the pitching is on the mark. They are 8^th in ERA, 5^th in WHIP, and 7^th in runs given up. That feels like playoff pitching.

If the Rays could fire up their hitting or maybe even grab some hitters at the deadline, they could make a run for the playoffs.

6.      Miami Marlins

The biggest problems for the Miami Marlins are the Phillies and the Mets. Are they really this bad? It is possible that they just can’t put it together, but it is more likely that things will turn around for them shortly, ejecting Miami from second place.

Miami is 19^th in slugging, but a not too shabby 12^th in OPS, but 18^th in runs scored. Probably too middle of the road to last 162 games in second place.

The pitching is also very middle: 12^th in ERA, 17^th in strikeouts, and 11^th in runs given up.

There are some reasons to be optimistic here, but it just seems like their competition is too strong.

7.      Cincinnati Reds

It is always fun to root for the Reds. And Elly De La Cruz is playing at an MVP level with 10 home runs, an .890 OPS, and phenomenal defensive performances. Maybe this is the year we have been waiting for.

I don’t think so. Not quite yet. Currently, the Reds are 17^th in slugging, 24^th in OPS, and 24^th in runs scored. That doesn’t feel like a playoff team.

Pitching was supposed to be their specialty this year, but they sit at 21^st in ERA. They are 24^th in strikeouts and have given up the 10^th fewest runs in MLB.

None of this feels like a playoff team despite the winning record.