Can Fernando Mendoza Really Save the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026?

Illustration by Thomas Dyson

The NFL Draft has come and gone, and one name dominated every conversation: Fernando Mendoza. It's easy to see why. Not only has the Heisman winner been regarded as a cut above the rest in his class since leading the Indiana Hoosiers to their first ever national championship title following their undefeated 2025 season, but the young quarterback's landing spot has also been a major factor in the narrative surrounding him. The Las Vegas Raiders had the first pick in the draft this year and unsurprisingly chose Mendoza. This comes off the back of a rather dismal 3-14 season, in which starting quarterback Geno Smith recorded his worst tally of both passing yards and touchdowns since his 2021 campaign with the Seattle Seahawks, when he only started three games. It was his worst performance in a season in which he played at least 10 games since 2014. Vegas may be the betting capital of the world, but it's safe to say the Raiders' gamble on a 35-year-old Geno Smith wasn't one that paid off.

Although 2025 wasn't a campaign to remember for Geno Smith, it's unfair to pin the Raiders' woes on him entirely. The Las Vegas Raiders are simply in the midst of a bleak run. The Raiders have a combined record of 21-47 over the last four seasons — their worst stint since moving to Sin City in 2020. They have seven wins in their last two seasons and have gone through four head coaches and four offensive coordinators in the past five seasons. Something needed to change for the Raiders, and it looks like it finally has.

Head coach Pete Carroll was dismissed after the 2025 season and replaced by former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who arrives in Nevada with a newly minted Super Bowl LX ring. There were quite a few coaching moves throughout the offseason, and Kubiak was perhaps the most sought-after name among them — including by several high-profile Super Bowl contenders. The Raiders' front office knows how fortunate they are to have landed someone like Kubiak, and you can't help but think he wouldn't be joining the team if he didn't believe something special was brewing in Vegas. Once you look at the rest of the personnel at his disposal, that belief starts to make a lot of sense.

First, there's Mendoza. The Heisman-winning catalyst behind Indiana's historic undefeated national championship season. He led Division I in touchdowns with 41 and posted a QB efficiency rating of 182.9. He also led the Big Ten in yards per attempt at 9.3. The numbers speak for themselves, but anyone who has seen this kid play knows he passes the eye test just as convincingly. Strong passing under pressure, split-second instincts, and the ability to make big plays when it matters most — like the time he dove over Miami's defensive line to score in the National Championship game. With the mentorship of veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins alongside him, it's hard to know how high Fernando Mendoza's ceiling truly is. He's had his doubters this offseason. They're going to be wrong.

As impressive as Mendoza is, there's a lot more to a successful football team than a good quarterback. Thankfully for the Raiders, they're building a well-balanced squad around him. Running back Ashton Jeanty was seen as a promising piece after being selected with the sixth pick in the 2025 draft. The former Boise State Bronco ranked 18th in rushing totals during his rookie season and caught headlines after scoring three touchdowns in a single game against the Bears in Week 4. His five touchdowns and 975 yards may not jump off the page, but the 22-year-old has shown flashes of what he's capable of. A retooled Raiders team could be exactly what he needs to take his game to the next level — and he's a player worth watching closely throughout the 2026 season.

No conversation about the current Las Vegas Raiders is complete without mentioning Maxx Crosby. Reports from the offseason suggested he was headed to the Ravens, and the Raiders should be deeply thankful that didn't happen. Crosby is one of the best defensive players in the league — full stop. He has deserved a better team around him for a while now and has been understandably vocal about wanting to compete at a higher level. The 28-year-old edge rusher has been selected to five consecutive Pro Bowls and has led the league in tackles for loss in two of the last four seasons. As underwhelming as the Raiders have been, it's sobering to consider how much worse things would have looked without Crosby's contributions. He has earned the right to compete for something meaningful, and the Raiders will be hoping this new era gives him exactly that.

Finally, there's the matter of competition. The AFC West was arguably the most intriguing division in football last season. Previously dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes and company were not only dethroned by the Denver Broncos but also watched the Los Angeles Chargers clinch a playoff berth at their expense. The division is more open than it has been in years — not less competitive, but genuinely up for grabs in a way that creates real opportunity. The Raiders will want to be part of that conversation in 2026. And with the American Conference as a whole in a transitional phase, this may be as good a window as the Raiders will get to end their playoff drought.

Fernando Mendoza will be the face of a Las Vegas Raiders team that looks genuinely different from anything this franchise has put together in years. Predictions on win totals and playoff seeding can wait. What feels clear right now is that this Raiders team will display two things that have been notably absent for quite some time — fight and genuine progress. They have the players. They have the coaches. They have the front office moving in the right direction. And with the most competitive division in football as the backdrop, this is a story worth following closely.

The Raiders are back in the conversation. It's about time.